吴雪飞：团购正在华丽转身

摘要：日前，中国电子商务研究中心分析师吴雪飞接受《德国商会》杂志约稿，发表题为《China’s Online Group Buy Industry》的文章。以下为部分中文内容及英文全文：进入2012，我国网络团购行业洗牌日益加剧。除了大批中小团购企业出现“倒闭潮”之外，一些知名团购网站也不堪资金压力，曝出种种丑闻。团宝网、24券、高朋网等独立团购网站都被迫裁员、撤站；赶集团、58团购等分类信息网站下的团购平台也面临经营问题。团购网站为求生存，也纷纷打出了转型升级牌，拉手网、窝窝团等团购网站上线了B2C商城，希望能够增加用户粘性，使企业扭亏为盈。但是，在团购行业洗牌之际，国家工商总局经过广泛调研，适时出台了管理规范——《关于加强网络团购经营活动管理的意见》，给混乱中的团购行业指明了发展方向。《意见》的规定，从保护消费者权益出发，限制了团购网站和现在团购行业中一部分不正当的经营行为，对于维护整个团购行业的正常秩序起着重要的作用。Returning to RealityIn 2012, China’s online group buy industry has experienced rapid reshuffling. In addition to a tide of bankruptcy for many small and medium-sized group buy companies, some well-known buy sites have faced intense financial pressure and have been exposed to various scandals. Independent buy sites such as Tuanbao, 24 Coupon and Gaopeng have been forced to lay off employees and retreat from the market; meanwhile, Rush Group, 58 Group Buy and other such platforms have encountered operational problems.In order to survive, one after another group buy site has sought to implement transformations and expand its brand name. Companies in the online B2C market like Handshake.net and Wowo Group hope to increase user stickiness in order to turn their losses into gains. However, in a time of reshuffling for the industry, the State Administration of Industry and Commerce has conducted wide-ranging investigations and enacted various regulatory standards (“Concepts for Strengthening the Regulation of the Activity of the Online Group Buy Industry”) in order to provide direction for the development of the chaotic industry. The provisions set out to protect the interests of consumers and limit the improper practices of certain group buy sites, and will play an important role in safeguarding the industry’s development. However, the standards need to be further improved to solve the present challenges of enforcement.The industry’s downturn has caused many group buy companies to become somewhat sluggish in terms of the products and services they offer. The number of complaints received by the China e-Commerce Research Center’s‘Public Platform for Complaints and Integrity’has only increased. Numerous well-known group buy sites have been involved.Drop in the Number of Sites Accelerates Industry’s ReshufflingAccording to the latest data from the China e-Commerce Research Centre, from early January 2011 to the end of December the number of group buy sites in China can be characterized as an inverted U shape. The number rose during the first half of the year but starting in July it fell continuously through December. There are now 3,909 group buy sites in China. Compared with the 2,630 firms in early 2011, this is not an obvious increase. Furthermore, the scale of these firms has shown a marked year-on-year decline in 2011.Hot Growth Caused by a Favourable ClimateUpon seeing the slump for domestic and international group buy companies, one cannot help but recall the wave of group buy models launched in China from mid-2010 to the first half of 2011. In a matter of months, the competition between a few hundred firms evolved into a battle between thousands. Websites were set up in less than a year and easily obtained as much as RMB 10mn in investment. How could an industry with an untested business model become so popular in China?According to the China e-Commerce Center’s analysis, this can be explained by the following reasons. From an international perspective, since group buy originator Groupon went online in 2008 until today, a period of merely a year and a half saw losses turned into gains, which became enormous profits; today the market value has already reached USD 6tn. Groupon’s development and profit model greatly stimulated China’s online shopping market, and a large number of imitators flocked to the industry. From a domestic perspective, the reasons for the industry’s rapid growth include:- Very low barriers to entry because it is so easy to establish one of these websites- The rising price of goods in China, which makes internet users even more dependent on e-commerce in order to save money- A huge user base, with the number of internet users in China reaching 450mn in 2010- The habits of white collar workers, who use online group buying to save time, money andeffortGroup Buy Gropes Forward as Industry Characteristics AppearIn the two years that online group buy has developed in China, the China e-Commerce Research Center has discovered six characteristics of the industry. In 2011, online group buy experienced ups and downs. The competition from the beginning of the year and the depression at the year’s end form a stark contrast. However, after two years of development, the industry’s characteristics have become evident. The China e-Commerce Research Center has combed through these characteristics in an effort to monitor them. In order to allow everyone to enjoy the great advantages of the group buy industry, and to restrict the abuse of the industry’s development, a clear understanding is necessary.Characteristic One: Major Homogenization; Lack of InnovationSince the beginning of the online group buy industry, regardless of the business model, product category or service, there has been a lack of differentiation. Many group buy sites are now competing for market share, and the intense level of competition is evident. In order to gain market share, most group buy sites utilize a strategy of financing - they burn through money and occupy market share in order to grow rapidly. But in terms of an innovative model, except for a small minority of enterprises which have implemented minor innovations, most of the group buy sites are extremely homogenized.Characteristic Two: User Stickiness is Weak and the Conversion Rate is LowIn the earliest stages of group buy, online consumers were attracted by ultra-low discounts. However, following the increase in the number of group buy sites, consumers became inundated with products of the same category. This allowed them to choose according to their actual needs (such as location, price, time, etc), rather than rely on any given site. So the situation now facing most group buy sites is that they get many views, but their conversion rates are low. With the exception of some particularly attractive products, most buy sites cannot guarantee the stickiness of their users.Characteristic Three: Profitability and Financing DifficultiesThe difficulty of reaching profitability is a common challenge facing many group buy sites. There are many factors contributing to this, such as market homogenization, the lack of user stickiness, after-purchase imperfections causing excessive complaints and so on. These factors lead group buy enterprises into a vicious cycle, because ultimately the meager earnings cause investors to lose confidence. Since the second half of 2011, it has been rare for group buy businesses to obtain financing. This situation stands in stark contrast with the beginning stages of the industry.Characteristic Four: The Threshold is Too Low and the Market Lacks SupervisionBecause there is only a single business model, the technology is simple, there is a lack of regulation and other reasons, the market entry threshold is very low. Although the fierce competition has created a situation where inferior companies are naturally eliminated, compared to other industries, the establishment of group buy sites is still relatively simple. Therefore, in order to supervise the group buy industry, the State Administration of Industry and Commerce has already carried out multiple investigations and anticipated the impact of its upcoming regulatory policies.Characteristic Five: Excessive Enthusiasm Caused Companies to‘Open Overnight’; Employees will now be Laid OffThe online group buy industry experienced a transformation throughout 2011. From the end of 2010 to early 2011, group buy companies were financed one after another almost overnight as investors scrambled to capitalize on the opportunity. But following the return to reality by group buy sites, their business partners and users, all sorts of problems have been exposed. Thus, in the second half of 2011, most group buy companies faced a shortage of funds. Even well-known group buy sites have experienced layoffs and strategic contraction.Characteristic Six: Customer Complaints, Business DissatisfactionSince the inception of group buy, the industry has been dogged by the doubts of businesses and user dissatisfaction, but the complaints increased much more rapidly in 2011. Due to the lack of standardization by businesses, logistical limitations and other reasons, the group buy industry has frequently been exposed for shoddy and delayed shipping, late delivery of refunds and other problems. These problems not only damage the interests of group buy companies, but their partners offering the discounts also lose the original sale and promotion for their business. In addition, because of the capital chain, some group buy enterprises default on their partners; this is another source of dissatisfaction.Group Buy Product Offerings Expand and Services Become PopularFollowing the expansion of group buy business models and the sharp increase in the number of users, it is not only the daily use type of company which has difficulty meeting the needs of consumers. Consumers also have high demands in terms of abundant product offerings. In order to obtain a higher level of user traffic, buy companies have begun to expand their product categories. Data from the China e-Commerce Research Centre indicates that food and beverage products as well as services are gradually becoming more profitable, while material goods and luxury items are expanding. The order of development is as follows: food and beverage, health and beauty, cosmetics and clothing, hotels and tourism, luxury, culture and entertainment services. The catalyst for this trend is mainly the expanding scale of group buy companies, which requires that they earn higher profits to support enterprise development. Although the group buy industry remains in the‘money-burning state’and profits are not high, they still need to lay the foundation for future development. As consumer spending becomes more rational, their focus will gradually shift from services to products. Therefore, in the future more group buy sites will offer these products.For Future Development, Increased Transformation is the KeyTrend One: Many Group Buy Sites will Adopt the O2O ModelIt has been fashionable among Chinese group buy sites to regard the O2O model as a pioneer for the industry in 2011.‘Online orders, offline consumption’is the essence of O2O’s model, which indicates that consumers order their products online and then go to a real world business entity to carry out their consumption. Recently, the e-commerce industry has given the B2C model priority, and businesses are already trending towards more and more homogenization, so the competition is extremely intense. The appearance of O2O’s model appears to expand the development scope of e-commerce, causing a large-scale push towards diversification. At the same time, when group buy businesses encounter life-or-death challenges, O2O’s model will present an opportunity to stay in business.Trend Two: Many Small and Medium-Sized Group Buy Enterprises will Face Bankruptcy According to data from the China e-Commerce Research Center, the number of group buy sites that went bankrupt in 2011 continued to grow; there were even more sites going bankrupt than new sites being created. In the end of December 2011, the number of Chinese group buy sites that went bankrupt reached 1,960, while only 66 new sites were added. Therefore, the majority of group buy companies do not have the comprehensive strength to survive, and many small and medium-sized firms will go bankrupt in 2012.Trend Three: The Vertical Subdivisions of Group Buy Sites Will Achieve Definitive DevelopmentOne of the most significant problems for the group buy industry is its lack of differentiation. During the‘war of a thousand group buy sites’, with the exception of the relatively strong funding of a few famous companies, the majority of firms have the same strengths, model and products, and thus have difficulty breaking out from the pack. 2012 will be a year of reshuffling for these companies. Small and medium-sized enterprises will choose to‘take the sword at the vanguard’and use their vertical subdivisions to find their own market share; this is a good option for them. This way they can avoid direct competition with other firms and can also survive based on their distinct group of users, allowing them to achieve long-term development.Trend Four: Group Buy Sites will Integrate with the Community and Use the Power of SNS to Increase User StickinessThe lack of user stickiness has always been a headache for group buy sites. In this competitive market, firms which can maintain a group of loyal customers can naturally come to the fore of the competition. Ever since social networking sites like Kaixin and Renren joined the plethora of group buy sites, they have, by virtue of their hundreds of millions of fixed users, used word of mouth advertising to promote their own group buy products. This is something that ordinary group buy sites cannot accomplish. Social networking sites such as Kaixin use various kinds of interactive applications as a foundation from which they can mobilize the vast resources of their users. They can create a timely, fast, accurate and nimble group buy environment. In the future, if group buy sites want to survive and compete in the long-term, joining the SNS model will be a good choice.Trend Five: Mobile Clients Will Become Standard for Group Buy SitesThe China Internet Network Information Center recently released a report showing that as of the end of 2011, the number of Chinese citizens who use the internet reached 513mn, and the proportion that use their mobile phones to access the internet rose 69.3%, to 356mn. It is not difficult to see that the momentum of the development of the mobile internet has greatly exceeded that of the traditional internet. In the future, group buy sites will utilize mobile phone users to achieve even better growth. The newly emerging e-commerce model of group buy certainly cannot overlook the new market of mobile e-commerce. Today, there are already many group buy sites for open-minded mobile phone customers. The ability to make group buy purchases at any time, at any place, is very popular. In the future, these users will become standard for group buy sites.Trend Six: The Group Buy Industry Will Enter the Stage of Standardization and SupervisionBecause the barriers to entry in the group buy industry are very low, the market has developed incredibly fast; in only six months a hundred enterprises turned into thousands. This rapid growth has led to the exposure of many problems for the industry and thus attracted the attention of the authorities. The lack of standardization via supervision has caused many group buy companies to exist almost by chance. These companies walk a fine line and cause a lot of inconvenience to consumers. The State Administration of Industry and Commerce has twice asked the China e-Commerce Research Center to investigate the problems of the group buy industry, in order to develop targeted supervisory policies. Now the research is in its final phase and should be introduced soon.Trend Seven: A new Round of Financing Is ExpectedAfter the reshuffling of the group buy industry, a crop of strong companies will come out on top. These companies will have better management and more innovative models, representing the maturity of the group buy market. These companies will continue to grow and develop, thus regaining the trust of investors.Credit Box:The China e-Commerce Research Center (www.100ec.cn) is the first third-party organisation and specialized internet media platform to be established in China. It is currently the only such platform which functions to disseminate e-commerce research and information in the country. Ms. Wu Xuefei is the Director of Internet Economics and Online Group Purchase with the China e-Commerce Research Centre and the Assistant to the Secretary General of the China Online Group Purchase Alliance for Integrity. （文/吴雪飞）

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